THE ART OF UNCERTAINTY

Probability with a twist.

Spiegelhalter, professor of statistics at Cambridge University and bestselling author of The Art of Statistics, emphasizes that he will deliver facts about uncertainty, avoiding matters of debate such as the best Beatle song, what to wear this evening, or the existence of God. Statistics, rules, and even equations come thick and fast, but few readers will miss his warning: Never trust words to express uncertainty. Many times this century, governments have raised the terrorism threat level, warning that an attack is “likely.” The number of attacks that followed—zero. Few agree on the meaning of “unlikely, possible, likely, probable, rare, and so on,” but a number is straightforward. Having set the scene and perhaps delivered more information than readers want to know, Spiegelhalter provides his expert opinion on simple subjects that turn out to be not so simple. Coincidences turn out to be common. Another long chapter discusses luck, which one expert called “the operation of chance, taken personally.” Still another points out that most people who die in car accidents are wearing seat belts, yet belts remain lifesaving. This is proved by Bayes’ theorem, which demonstrates how additional facts can make sense of nonsense. Random numbers are essential in many fields outside of statistics, but they’re extremely difficult to achieve; most readers can’t produce them. He concludes with a long discussion of making decisions and managing risks—perhaps his most practical chapters. Readers should not expect strategy for winning at Las Vegas or the office election pool. Spiegelhalter admits frankly that many concepts are tough going, and readers whose mathematics classes include a taste of statistics will have an easier time.

A satisfying look at the nature of uncertainty.