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PREDICTING OUR CLIMATE FUTURE

WHAT WE KNOW, WHAT WE DON'T KNOW, AND WHAT WE CAN'T KNOW

Dense and sometimes difficult, but a provocative contribution to the literature of climate change.

A scholarly exploration of how we might model climate change to know better how to respond to it.

Stainforth, a professor at the London School of Economics, is no denier, but he asks, “What do we know with confidence bordering on certainty? How do we know it, and what is the basis for any such confidence?” His answer is that our understanding of climate change is a patchwork affair, contingent upon incomplete information that can be improved on only with more and better information. The overarching problem is that the climate is a dynamic system that has countless moving parts, each comparatively easy to measure in the singular but vexingly hard to factor in the aggregate, “the whole, huge, complex, interacting muddle of physical components from clouds to ocean ecosystems, from ice sheets to rain forests, from hurricanes to the water and carbon bound up in soils.” To follow Stainforth’s argument requires grounding in data analysis, programming, probability, statistics, and climatology. Still, the author offers some fairly accessible takeaways—e.g., we can get to work in better controlling what we can, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That way lie still other moving parts, including the big social questions about what the climate future will look like: “What sort of work will be available in your nation or region? Will you be able to get the foods you want? Will you be more likely to be affected by conflict? If so, how? Will you be influenced by natural disasters and extremes? Will you be able to see relatives in far-away places?” The answers to such questions hinge on emotion, politics, and hard data, and they aren’t easy to come by in the abstract—though answer them we must.

Dense and sometimes difficult, but a provocative contribution to the literature of climate change.

Pub Date: Jan. 12, 2024

ISBN: 9780198812937

Page Count: 368

Publisher: Oxford Univ.

Review Posted Online: Sept. 22, 2023

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 15, 2023

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THE BACKYARD BIRD CHRONICLES

An ebullient nature lover’s paean to birds.

A charming bird journey with the bestselling author.

In his introduction to Tan’s “nature journal,” David Allen Sibley, the acclaimed ornithologist, nails the spirit of this book: a “collection of delightfully quirky, thoughtful, and personal observations of birds in sketches and words.” For years, Tan has looked out on her California backyard “paradise”—oaks, periwinkle vines, birch, Japanese maple, fuchsia shrubs—observing more than 60 species of birds, and she fashions her findings into delightful and approachable journal excerpts, accompanied by her gorgeous color sketches. As the entries—“a record of my life”—move along, the author becomes more adept at identifying and capturing them with words and pencils. Her first entry is September 16, 2017: Shortly after putting up hummingbird feeders, one of the tiny, delicate creatures landed on her hand and fed. “We have a relationship,” she writes. “I am in love.” By August 2018, her backyard “has become a menagerie of fledglings…all learning to fly.” Day by day, she has continued to learn more about the birds, their activities, and how she should relate to them; she also admits mistakes when they occur. In December 2018, she was excited to observe a Townsend’s Warbler—“Omigod! It’s looking at me. Displeased expression.” Battling pesky squirrels, Tan deployed Hot Pepper Suet to keep them away, and she deterred crows by hanging a fake one upside down. The author also declared war on outdoor cats when she learned they kill more than 1 billion birds per year. In May 2019, she notes that she spends $250 per month on beetle larvae. In June 2019, she confesses “spending more hours a day staring at birds than writing. How can I not?” Her last entry, on December 15, 2022, celebrates when an eating bird pauses, “looks and acknowledges I am there.”

An ebullient nature lover’s paean to birds.

Pub Date: April 23, 2024

ISBN: 9780593536131

Page Count: 320

Publisher: Knopf

Review Posted Online: Jan. 19, 2024

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Feb. 15, 2024

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ELON MUSK

Alternately admiring and critical, unvarnished, and a closely detailed account of a troubled innovator.

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A warts-and-all portrait of the famed techno-entrepreneur—and the warts are nearly beyond counting.

To call Elon Musk (b. 1971) “mercurial” is to undervalue the term; to call him a genius is incorrect. Instead, Musk has a gift for leveraging the genius of others in order to make things work. When they don’t, writes eminent biographer Isaacson, it’s because the notoriously headstrong Musk is so sure of himself that he charges ahead against the advice of others: “He does not like to share power.” In this sharp-edged biography, the author likens Musk to an earlier biographical subject, Steve Jobs. Given Musk’s recent political turn, born of the me-first libertarianism of the very rich, however, Henry Ford also comes to mind. What emerges clearly is that Musk, who may or may not have Asperger’s syndrome (“Empathy did not come naturally”), has nurtured several obsessions for years, apart from a passion for the letter X as both a brand and personal name. He firmly believes that “all requirements should be treated as recommendations”; that it is his destiny to make humankind a multi-planetary civilization through innovations in space travel; that government is generally an impediment and that “the thought police are gaining power”; and that “a maniacal sense of urgency” should guide his businesses. That need for speed has led to undeniable successes in beating schedules and competitors, but it has also wrought disaster: One of the most telling anecdotes in the book concerns Musk’s “demon mode” order to relocate thousands of Twitter servers from Sacramento to Portland at breakneck speed, which trashed big parts of the system for months. To judge by Isaacson’s account, that may have been by design, for Musk’s idea of creative destruction seems to mean mostly chaos.

Alternately admiring and critical, unvarnished, and a closely detailed account of a troubled innovator.

Pub Date: Sept. 12, 2023

ISBN: 9781982181284

Page Count: 688

Publisher: Simon & Schuster

Review Posted Online: Sept. 12, 2023

Kirkus Reviews Issue: Oct. 15, 2023

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