The innumerate will struggle, but every reader will encounter gems and jolts in this expert analysis of probability.
A definitely-not-dumbed-down exploration of predicting outcomes, whether of an election, card game, medical test, or weather front.
Stewart (Emeritus, Mathematics/Univ. of Warwick; Significant Figures: The Lives and Work of Great Mathematicians, 2017), the prolific popular author of books on his specialty, points out that “an aspect of the human condition that arguably singles out our species from most other animals is time-binding. We’re conscious that there will be a future, and we plan our current behavior in the context of our expectations of that future.” Predicting odds is straightforward (though not always easy), and predicting the future turns out to be surprisingly possible, but both require calculations—in other words, mathematics. Popular writers on difficult topics involving math and science often assure readers that they will limit the equations, but Stewart has no patience with this tradition, so readers who do not remember high school algebra will have a difficult time. The author interweaves his account with a lively history that, few readers will be surprised to learn, began in the Renaissance, largely with gamblers who wrote long monographs that teased out the unnerving peculiarities of dice and cards. Stewart states bluntly that “the human intuition for probability is hopeless.” Evolution has trained us to make quick decisions, which are essential in the struggle for existence but a bad idea when faced with even simple abstractions such as estimating odds. He illustrates with plenty of squirm-inducing paradoxes. Example: A couple has two children; at least one is a girl. What is the chance that they have two girls? Almost everyone answers 1 in 2, but it’s 1 in 3. Now suppose that the elder child is a girl. What is the chance that they have two girls? This time 1 in 2 is correct.
The innumerate will struggle, but every reader will encounter gems and jolts in this expert analysis of probability.Pub Date: Sept. 3, 2019
ISBN: 978-1-5416-9947-2
Page Count: 304
Publisher: Basic Books
Review Posted Online: May 25, 2019
Kirkus Reviews Issue: June 15, 2019
An enjoyable slice of 20th-century music journalism almost certain to provide something for most readers, no matter one’s...
Music journalist and musician Wald (Talking 'Bout Your Mama: The Dozens, Snaps, and the Deep Roots of Rap, 2014, etc.) focuses on one evening in music history to explain the evolution of contemporary music, especially folk, blues, and rock.
The date of that evening is July 25, 1965, at the Newport Folk Festival, where there was an unbelievably unexpected occurrence: singer/songwriter Bob Dylan, already a living legend in his early 20s, overriding the acoustic music that made him famous in favor of electronically based music, causing reactions ranging from adoration to intense resentment among other musicians, DJs, and record buyers. Dylan has told his own stories (those stories vary because that’s Dylan’s character), and plenty of other music journalists have explored the Dylan phenomenon. What sets Wald's book apart is his laser focus on that one date. The detailed recounting of what did and did not occur on stage and in the audience that night contains contradictory evidence sorted skillfully by the author. He offers a wealth of context; in fact, his account of Dylan's stage appearance does not arrive until 250 pages in. The author cites dozens of sources, well-known and otherwise, but the key storylines, other than Dylan, involve acoustic folk music guru Pete Seeger and the rich history of the Newport festival, a history that had created expectations smashed by Dylan. Furthermore, the appearances on the pages by other musicians—e.g., Joan Baez, the Weaver, Peter, Paul, and Mary, Dave Van Ronk, and Gordon Lightfoot—give the book enough of an expansive feel. Wald's personal knowledge seems encyclopedic, and his endnotes show how he ranged far beyond personal knowledge to produce the book.
An enjoyable slice of 20th-century music journalism almost certain to provide something for most readers, no matter one’s personal feelings about Dylan's music or persona.Pub Date: July 25, 2015
ISBN: 978-0-06-236668-9
Page Count: 368
Publisher: Dey Street/HarperCollins
Review Posted Online: May 15, 2015
Kirkus Reviews Issue: June 1, 2015
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Stricter than, say, Bergen Evans or W3 ("disinterested" means impartial — period), Strunk is in the last analysis...
Privately published by Strunk of Cornell in 1918 and revised by his student E. B. White in 1959, that "little book" is back again with more White updatings.
Stricter than, say, Bergen Evans or W3 ("disinterested" means impartial — period), Strunk is in the last analysis (whoops — "A bankrupt expression") a unique guide (which means "without like or equal").Pub Date: May 15, 1972
ISBN: 0205632645
Page Count: 105
Publisher: Macmillan
Review Posted Online: Oct. 28, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 1972
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