TRADING BASES

A fun approach to developing the discipline necessary to separate reproducible skills from the disruptive effects of chance in baseball, finance and life.

Peta's 15-year career as an equity trader with Lehman Brothers abruptly ended when an ambulance ran into him and crushed his leg. The author discusses how he pulled his life back together in the months when he was laid up, unable to walk and separated from his family on the West Coast. Peta developed a system for betting on baseball and began the work to turn it into a business. Conceptually, the author built on the work of predecessors from the sabermetrics school of baseball statistical analysis like Bill James and Nate Silver. Peta worked on developing statistical indicators that might give him an edge in the 2011 season, looking to find ways to separate analysis of acquired skills from chance or accident. Peta's approach is helpful to understanding statistical analysis in any field, not just the chosen baseball specialty. He applies the same approach to Wall Street trading results and showing how using profit-and-loss results to assess a manager's performance can be as misleading as using wins to identify a team's best pitcher. Neither reflect quantification of developable skill sets, but rather uncontrollable external factors. Peta's system was ready for operation by the beginning of the 2011 season; by August, he was able to walk, ready for the coming World Series. His system ended its first season comfortably ahead.

The main focus on baseball provides a starting point for much more.