The book outlines an intriguing strategy though its fundamental assumptions require careful scrutiny.
Von Thiensen’s (Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm—Part 1, 2014, etc.) second installment in his series on stock market cycles looks to the stars for guidance.
Believing, as some do, that the “financial markets are driven by emotions,” the author contends that if one can assess which emotions traders are collectively experiencing, one can predict (at least to some extent) and profit from the vagaries of the market. This is where heavenly bodies come in. Von Thiensen says, “There is growing evidence that the interactions between the Sun, Moon, and Earth are a factor that affects our well-being” and, by extension, our emotions. If the savvy investor is able to anticipate how these cycles will steer the emotions of other investors, they can potentially make a lot of money. By punching numbers into the author’s software (which uses built-in algorithms), the user can decode trading cycles and earn a decent profit, says Von Thiensen. He provides examples of his program’s success in an analysis from 2008 that shows that out of 22 trades, 17 led to gains. After all, “since financial markets are driven solely by emotions, it seems logical that this repetitive solar/lunar pattern must also be reflected in developments on the stock market.” It does seem like a logical enough assumption, but is it true? What of all of the other technical traders employing their own sophisticated, emotionless algorithms? Portions of the book engage in technical language (e.g. “we will use the wave to build a non-linear superposition wave based on the theory introduced on recurring energy patterns”); however, the content is still steered by astrology. The book certainly provides guidance for adventurous investors who are willing to put the author’s software to the test. Those readers already firm in their strategies seem unlikely, however, to convert to a computer model that is based on “how energy will influence the mood of investors.” As trading methods become ever more technologically sophisticated, banking on the mood of investors may seem like a risky proposition.
The book outlines an intriguing strategy though its fundamental assumptions require careful scrutiny.Pub Date: May 14, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4995-6259-0
Page Count: 238
Publisher: CreateSpace
Review Posted Online: Aug. 20, 2017
Review Program: Kirkus Indie
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
IN THE NEWS
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.
A helpful guide to working effectively with people from other cultures.
“The sad truth is that the vast majority of managers who conduct business internationally have little understanding about how culture is impacting their work,” writes Meyer, a professor at INSEAD, an international business school. Yet they face a wider array of work styles than ever before in dealing with clients, suppliers and colleagues from around the world. When is it best to speak or stay quiet? What is the role of the leader in the room? When working with foreign business people, failing to take cultural differences into account can lead to frustration, misunderstanding or worse. Based on research and her experiences teaching cross-cultural behaviors to executive students, the author examines a handful of key areas. Among others, they include communicating (Anglo-Saxons are explicit; Asians communicate implicitly, requiring listeners to read between the lines), developing a sense of trust (Brazilians do it over long lunches), and decision-making (Germans rely on consensus, Americans on one decider). In each area, the author provides a “culture map scale” that positions behaviors in more than 20 countries along a continuum, allowing readers to anticipate the preferences of individuals from a particular country: Do they like direct or indirect negative feedback? Are they rigid or flexible regarding deadlines? Do they favor verbal or written commitments? And so on. Meyer discusses managers who have faced perplexing situations, such as knowledgeable team members who fail to speak up in meetings or Indians who offer a puzzling half-shake, half-nod of the head. Cultural differences—not personality quirks—are the motivating factors behind many behavioral styles. Depending on our cultures, we understand the world in a particular way, find certain arguments persuasive or lacking merit, and consider some ways of making decisions or measuring time natural and others quite strange.
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.Pub Date: May 27, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-61039-250-1
Page Count: 288
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: April 15, 2014
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2014
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