Skeptics will be sure of even less after reading Blastland’s book—and that’s a step in the right direction.
We know a fraction of what we think we know—and, writes journalist Blastland, even that is likely to be wrong.
This is a book-length exercise in what philosophers call epistemic humility, which the author, co-author of The Norm Chronicles, a study of risk, glosses as “intellectual humble pie to the rest of us.” If clones are supposed to be identical copies of some master unit, how is it that marmorkrebs, or cloned crayfish, vary markedly in size and other qualities when they’re “identical batch-mates in the same conditions”? If economists are so smart, why couldn’t we avoid the worldwide 2008 financial collapse? Why is it that a gaggle of juvenile delinquents, studied over a long period, deep into adulthood, diverged into repeat offenders and model citizens, given the same backgrounds and disadvantages, and that identical twins can be so downright different? Blastland’s answers are considered and developed at leisure, but in the end, they boil down to the proposition that although we are wedded to ideas of order and regular patterns, the world is chaotic. Acknowledging this, he continues, allows us to see chance, noise, and like things that rationalists detest as instead “a positive force for disruption.” That positivity doesn’t help us avert what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a black-swan event, but it does go a long way toward explaining oddities of human behavior. In one experiment, Blastland elicited political opinions from a group of volunteers, then wrote down the opposite of what the respondents said, only to have them passionately and rationally defend the viewpoint exactly counter to their own. We believe what we want to, it seems. Chaos and contingency also help explain the rise of Donald Trump and the success of the Brexit movement, neither of which should ever have happened. The author closes with a dozen useful pointers for navigating uncertainty, including the mandate, “Don’t use probability to disguise ignorance.”
Skeptics will be sure of even less after reading Blastland’s book—and that’s a step in the right direction.Pub Date: Oct. 1, 2020
ISBN: 978-1-78649-639-3
Page Count: 304
Publisher: Atlantic Books
Review Posted Online: July 15, 2020
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Aug. 15, 2020
BOOK REVIEW
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
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IN THE NEWS
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.
A helpful guide to working effectively with people from other cultures.
“The sad truth is that the vast majority of managers who conduct business internationally have little understanding about how culture is impacting their work,” writes Meyer, a professor at INSEAD, an international business school. Yet they face a wider array of work styles than ever before in dealing with clients, suppliers and colleagues from around the world. When is it best to speak or stay quiet? What is the role of the leader in the room? When working with foreign business people, failing to take cultural differences into account can lead to frustration, misunderstanding or worse. Based on research and her experiences teaching cross-cultural behaviors to executive students, the author examines a handful of key areas. Among others, they include communicating (Anglo-Saxons are explicit; Asians communicate implicitly, requiring listeners to read between the lines), developing a sense of trust (Brazilians do it over long lunches), and decision-making (Germans rely on consensus, Americans on one decider). In each area, the author provides a “culture map scale” that positions behaviors in more than 20 countries along a continuum, allowing readers to anticipate the preferences of individuals from a particular country: Do they like direct or indirect negative feedback? Are they rigid or flexible regarding deadlines? Do they favor verbal or written commitments? And so on. Meyer discusses managers who have faced perplexing situations, such as knowledgeable team members who fail to speak up in meetings or Indians who offer a puzzling half-shake, half-nod of the head. Cultural differences—not personality quirks—are the motivating factors behind many behavioral styles. Depending on our cultures, we understand the world in a particular way, find certain arguments persuasive or lacking merit, and consider some ways of making decisions or measuring time natural and others quite strange.
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.Pub Date: May 27, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-61039-250-1
Page Count: 288
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: April 15, 2014
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2014
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