OUR FRAGILE MOMENT

A renowned climatologist and science journalist casts a hard eye on the probability that climate change is irreversible.

There’s good news tucked away inside these data-packed pages: An Earth too hot to sustain life is not likely to come about “in any scenario but total inaction.” The warming trajectory of the planet’s climate is, even by current policies, likely to fall below the worst-case scenarios that have been proposed. Mann, the author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars and The Madhouse Effect, suggests that planetary homeostasis is such that the climate is likely to even out and return to its old “normal.” The bad news, of course, is that it’s entirely unlikely that the present economy, still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, is going to turn on a dime—not when there are so many dimes to be made in burning them. That economy is the biggest obstacle to battling climate change, and with it comes “a sustained, massive, billions-of-dollars disinformation campaign.” The campaign’s proponent and main villain is Rupert Murdoch, whose stranglehold on the U.S. is principally confined to Fox News but who has much stronger control over Australia’s media. Even so, notes the author, Murdoch was unable to undo the Australian government’s pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 43% by 2030, largely because mandatory voting led to greater popular representation. Granted, neither mandatory voting nor gerrymandering, banned in Australia, are likely to take root in the U.S. given right-wing opposition. For all its positive outlook, though, Mann’s argument hinges on probabilities and a historical record that shows plenty of evidence of past catastrophes resulting in massive die-offs, and the overarching answer, on the principle of scientific uncertainty, is that we don’t really know what will happen—unless, that is, we surrender to inertia.

An evenhanded take on a crucial topic. While our goose may not be cooked, it’s still time to reduce the heat.