CONSPIRACY

The bestselling author and publisher of Skeptic magazine investigates why people believe conspiracy theories.

For many contemporary Americans, QAnon is an alluring explanation for the unexplainable. Technically, writes Shermer, “it’s not even wrong” because its claims are so broad that it resists being proven wrong. There may be such a thing as a “deep state”—even if, as the author points out, most people aren’t good enough at keeping secrets or carrying out their part in conspiracies to make them work. As evidence, he cites two assassinations. The plot to kill Abraham Lincoln also included multiple other targets, but only John Wilkes Booth succeeded in his assignment. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand almost happened by accident, since Gavrilo Princip lost sight of his target and only stumbled on the car because of a driver’s error. The conspiracy theory that evolved led to catastrophe: Austro-Hungarians assumed that the Serbian government was in on the plot, and World War I ensued. “Imagine how differently the twentieth century would have unfolded without the Great War,” writes Shermer, “sparing the lives of tens of millions of people…[and] almost certainly…no Hitler, no Nazis, no World War II, and no Holocaust.” The author writes that while the conspiracy theories surrounding John F. Kennedy’s death are understandable, given that governments, spy agencies, and the CIA harbor secrets, there’s no good evidence to support any postulate other than that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. Noting that there are degrees of belief in conspiracy theory—36% of people Shermer surveyed believe that the government is hiding information about the JFK assassination, while, only 11% believe that 5G towers increase the risk of Covid-19 infection—the author suggests that perhaps the best thing to do with the QAnon believer at the dinner table is to try to listen sympathetically while pushing back respectfully. Better still is to stop the spread of misinformation in the first place, which is far more difficult.

A fascinating tour of oddball wrongheadedness, with gentle but firm prescriptions for combatting it.