SAME AS EVER

A look at how human nature is the great constant in the history of change.

This is a strange piece of work: a collection of 23 “little stories” (many of them drawn from the author’s blog) loosely organized around the theme of risk. A business journalist and a partner at the Collaborative Fund, a venture capital firm, Housel acknowledges that technology, trends, and politics move at an astonishingly rapid pace, but he asserts that human behavior does not really change much. Identifying what changes and what does not is the key to effective risk assessment as well as the path to a decent, contented life. Humans, writes the author, will be satisfied with what they have until they see others who have more. To get ahead, they are likely to listen to “experts,” although often the only talent these experts have is making everything more complex than it really is. Most people respond more readily to narratives and incentives than to data. There is a tendency to think of the future as a straightforward extrapolation of the past, although the most significant events are the big surprises that seem to jump out of nowhere. Housel tries to provide a series of lessons, such as acknowledging that every job has its downsides and understanding that many aspects of life are unpredictable and difficult. This is interesting enough, but many of the author’s stories, especially those based on personal experiences, do not seem to relate to his theme, or indeed to anything. His thinking can be difficult to follow, and some of his conclusions are contradictory. Some readers might find the book to be positive and even inspiring, but many others will find it merely self-indulgent and confusing.

Housel makes some good points, but they are often lost in the text’s meandering structure and lack of focus.