DOOM

The bestselling British historian offers his thoughts on major disasters, including the current pandemic, with an emphasis on why humans handle them so badly.

After seeing his warnings about the severity of Covid-19 ignored in early 2020, Ferguson revived his interest in the role of disasters in world history. The result is this assertive, intensely researched, sometimes unconvincing, but always entertaining account. “Historians tend to gravitate toward the study of…extreme disasters, with a preference for the man-made varieties,” writes the author. “Yet they seldom reflect very deeply on their common properties.” With all disasters, the social context is crucial: A hurricane or earthquake is of no consequence unless there are people around. Perhaps most important of all, Ferguson emphasizes, these phenomena tend to follow “power laws” rather than the familiar normal distribution such as human heights. There is no average forest fire, stock market drop, or measles outbreak. Major catastrophes occur so rarely that few of us take the risk personally and continue to invest in risky stocks, settle in flood plains, and thrill at the beginning of the latest war. Historians follow every disaster with an explanation. Thus, they explain that the shocking 1914 outbreak of World War I was caused by decades of competition between Europe’s great powers. Ferguson disagrees, preferring Tolstoy’s view that human calamities are natural phenomena comparable to a hurricane. “Most disasters occur when a complex system goes critical,” writes the author, “usually as a result of some small perturbation.” After a handful of familiar examples (the Titanic, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, etc.), Ferguson returns to Covid, an ongoing preoccupation that he describes in superb detail. Unquestionably an economic disaster, in terms of lives lost, the author labels it a “medium-size disaster”—comparable to the 1957-1958 influenza pandemic rather than the epic 1918-1919 Spanish flu. Ferguson ends in September 2020, before the pandemic’s massive upswing, so future editions will require an addendum.

Captivating, opinionated history from a knowledgeable source.