THE LOOM OF TIME

The bestselling author specializing in geopolitics returns to the Middle East to deliver another tour de force.

Drawing on 50 years of experience interviewing officials, intellectuals, historians, and fellow journalists and reading seemingly every history and scholarly work from Herodotus to Gibbon to Toynbee, Kaplan is convinced that “the big story in the Middle East today is not necessarily the failure of democracy—but the departure of empire.” After the breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, Britain and France had their moments, followed by the U.S and the Soviet Union. The 1991 Soviet collapse and disastrous U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan delivered the kiss of death, so “for the first time in modern history the region is in a post-imperial phase.” Western scholars deplore empires, but nations with an ancient imperial tradition (Turkey, Iran, China) have no doubt that the world can benefit from their cultures. That humans yearn for democracy is a peculiarly Western fantasy. In reality, given a choice between dictatorship and disorder, a large percentage of the population, Americans included, prefers the former. In Turkey, Recep Erdoğan has been in office for two decades, evolving into another democratically elected autocrat. He has embraced Islamism, reversed national idol Kemal Ataturk’s fierce secularization, and revived the expansiveness of the former Ottoman Empire, which Turks have always admired. Egypt is still recovering from the Arab Spring, during which the Muslim Brotherhood won a free election but could not establish order, so most Egyptians did not object when the nation’s military returned to power. Kaplan points out that the U.S. regularly denounces lack of democracy throughout this region, from Libya to Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Yemen, and Iraq, apparently unaware that this would mean government by Islamists whose rule in Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan does not inspire confidence. American officials urge these nations to adopt progressive policies absent in the U.S. until recently. As always, the author offers much food for thought about a variety of geopolitical issues.

Little encouraging news but brilliantly delivered.