WASTE LAND

A meditation on the ongoing crisis in global democracy.

Drawing on an extended analogy comparing the history of the short-lived Weimar Republic, Adolf Hitler’s first victim, to that of the modern democratic nations, Kaplan warns that danger is nigh: “A crisis in one becomes a crisis in all, all countries are now connected in ways in which a crisis for one can contain a domino effect that becomes almost universal,” whether it be pandemic illness or climate change. In making this analogy, Kaplan, known for his dour political travelogues about places like the Balkans and the U.S.-Mexico borderlands, draws on numerous literary exemplars, some relatively well known (Alexander Solzhenitsyn) and others largely obscure today (Oswald Spengler). Against that Weimar backdrop, he places current political figures and movements, sometimes with curious speculations attached: closer documentation is wanted, for one, to support his thought that by invading Ukraine Vladimir Putin hoped to “forge a permanent alliance with a weakened and insecure Germany, practically dislodging it from the West, which would have the indirect effect of further undermining Europe’s other liberal democracies.” Given then-leader Angela Merkel’s steely dislike of Putin, this scenario seems unlikely. But Kaplan is spot-on in his subsequent assessment of the several reasons that Putin’s adventure in Ukraine was not the instant success Putin hoped for. Kaplan observes that while there are those who hope that with increased globalism will come the enhanced rule of law and “rules-based global civilization,” it’s equally likely that “there will be a civilizational vacuum, with anarchy becoming more prevalent.” In the end, Kaplan posits, one can only follow trends and guess at their outcome, which “is not given to any of us in advance”—one reason, he suggests, to fight for democracy and against its enemies.

A provocative thought experiment, of much interest to students of contemporary geopolitics.