With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking.
A sometimes repetitive but generally useful manual on introducing cost-benefit analysis to decision-making.
“We need an effective intellectual framework for thinking about thinking—an approach to the world that acknowledges complexity and uncertainty but can nonetheless help us make the best possible decisions,” writes Rubin, a former Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs executive. There’s a lot packed into that suggestion, for acknowledging that complexity and uncertainty involves introducing risk analysis into decisions of import, which entails probabilistic thinking (What are the chances this is going to fail?), which involves the old economists’ trick of cost-benefit analysis, which circles back to risk. One does all this, Rubin counsels, by means of a yellow legal pad, a metaphor for any means of listing possible outcomes for reckoning honestly with key questions: “How do you make judgments about the probabilities? How do you consider trade-offs when priorities conflict? And how do you deal with potential scenarios that can’t be expressed in numerical terms?” Rubin is a qualitative thinker, but he admits that some qualitative assessment boils down simply to gut reactions. Though he belabors certain points, he makes subtle arguments about the dangers of, for instance, assuming that low risk means no risk and the desirability of leaders who care less about whether they’re popular than whether they make their best effort to get things right. In that regard, he branches out to leadership style, notably Bill Clinton’s, who was inclined to make decisions while taking a wide range of opinions that weren’t necessarily weighted toward the seniority of the person offering them. That approach relies on “embracing human complexity: recognizing and engaging with the inherent strengths, weaknesses, and motivations of individuals, and then working to give them the best chance to succeed.” And never skip the important step of asking “foundational questions.”
With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking.Pub Date: May 16, 2023
ISBN: 9780593491393
Page Count: 336
Publisher: Penguin Press
Review Posted Online: March 10, 2023
Kirkus Reviews Issue: April 1, 2023
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
IN THE NEWS
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.
A helpful guide to working effectively with people from other cultures.
“The sad truth is that the vast majority of managers who conduct business internationally have little understanding about how culture is impacting their work,” writes Meyer, a professor at INSEAD, an international business school. Yet they face a wider array of work styles than ever before in dealing with clients, suppliers and colleagues from around the world. When is it best to speak or stay quiet? What is the role of the leader in the room? When working with foreign business people, failing to take cultural differences into account can lead to frustration, misunderstanding or worse. Based on research and her experiences teaching cross-cultural behaviors to executive students, the author examines a handful of key areas. Among others, they include communicating (Anglo-Saxons are explicit; Asians communicate implicitly, requiring listeners to read between the lines), developing a sense of trust (Brazilians do it over long lunches), and decision-making (Germans rely on consensus, Americans on one decider). In each area, the author provides a “culture map scale” that positions behaviors in more than 20 countries along a continuum, allowing readers to anticipate the preferences of individuals from a particular country: Do they like direct or indirect negative feedback? Are they rigid or flexible regarding deadlines? Do they favor verbal or written commitments? And so on. Meyer discusses managers who have faced perplexing situations, such as knowledgeable team members who fail to speak up in meetings or Indians who offer a puzzling half-shake, half-nod of the head. Cultural differences—not personality quirks—are the motivating factors behind many behavioral styles. Depending on our cultures, we understand the world in a particular way, find certain arguments persuasive or lacking merit, and consider some ways of making decisions or measuring time natural and others quite strange.
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.Pub Date: May 27, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-61039-250-1
Page Count: 288
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: April 15, 2014
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2014
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