A consistently engrossing guide to trend forecasting.
A business book aimed at readers who want to predict the next big thing.
Bhargava (Likeonomics, 2012, etc.) got his start as a brand and marketing strategist by identifying the ways that society is changing and flowing, including how social media affects one’s identity and how companies work to deepen their social responsibility. He’s the creator of the Non-Obvious Trend Report, “one of the most widely read collections of future insights in the world,” which he’s put out annually for the last decade. This book’s first part focuses on “non-obvious thinking,” or noticing patterns where others see only random occurrences. He goes through his own noticing process and how he winnows down many different ideas, seeks validating research, and chooses the best possible trends for a given year. In the book’s second section, his focus shifts to 10 overarching trends, called “megatrends.” Each gets its own chapter, with subsections that clearly explain what the megatrend is, how it connects to research or societal examples, and ways to leverage this trend in one’s own life; he also provides a flowchart that depicts how elements of other trends, from past years, contributed to it. For instance, the megatrend “Amplified Identity” is summed up as follows: “As individualism rises globally, people are carefully cultivating how they are perceived both online and offline, chasing stardom, and making themselves vulnerable to criticism in the process”; it’s connected to the trends “Everyday Stardom” and “Selfie Confidence” from 2015. Finally, the third part offers quick evaluations of the accuracy and longevity of past years’ trend reports, offering a refreshingly candid look at how predictions can be inaccurate. The conclusion is a short, irreverent reminder that no single trend persists forever and that outlandish ones often die out quickly. A recommended reading section offers intriguing books on each of the megatrend topics. Throughout, Bhargava offers clear and straightforward prose, and his engaging, well-spaced graphic elements make the text more interactive.
A consistently engrossing guide to trend forecasting.Pub Date: Jan. 7, 2020
ISBN: 978-1-940858-96-8
Page Count: 258
Publisher: Ideapress Publishing
Review Posted Online: Dec. 20, 2019
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Feb. 15, 2020
Review Program: Kirkus Indie
BOOK REVIEW
BOOK REVIEW
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our...
A psychologist and Nobel Prize winner summarizes and synthesizes the recent decades of research on intuition and systematic thinking.
The author of several scholarly texts, Kahneman (Emeritus Psychology and Public Affairs/Princeton Univ.) now offers general readers not just the findings of psychological research but also a better understanding of how research questions arise and how scholars systematically frame and answer them. He begins with the distinction between System 1 and System 2 mental operations, the former referring to quick, automatic thought, the latter to more effortful, overt thinking. We rely heavily, writes, on System 1, resorting to the higher-energy System 2 only when we need or want to. Kahneman continually refers to System 2 as “lazy”: We don’t want to think rigorously about something. The author then explores the nuances of our two-system minds, showing how they perform in various situations. Psychological experiments have repeatedly revealed that our intuitions are generally wrong, that our assessments are based on biases and that our System 1 hates doubt and despises ambiguity. Kahneman largely avoids jargon; when he does use some (“heuristics,” for example), he argues that such terms really ought to join our everyday vocabulary. He reviews many fundamental concepts in psychology and statistics (regression to the mean, the narrative fallacy, the optimistic bias), showing how they relate to his overall concerns about how we think and why we make the decisions that we do. Some of the later chapters (dealing with risk-taking and statistics and probabilities) are denser than others (some readers may resent such demands on System 2!), but the passages that deal with the economic and political implications of the research are gripping.
Striking research showing the immense complexity of ordinary thought and revealing the identities of the gatekeepers in our minds.Pub Date: Nov. 1, 2011
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Page Count: 512
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Review Posted Online: Sept. 3, 2011
Kirkus Reviews Issue: Sept. 15, 2011
BOOK REVIEW
IN THE NEWS
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.
A helpful guide to working effectively with people from other cultures.
“The sad truth is that the vast majority of managers who conduct business internationally have little understanding about how culture is impacting their work,” writes Meyer, a professor at INSEAD, an international business school. Yet they face a wider array of work styles than ever before in dealing with clients, suppliers and colleagues from around the world. When is it best to speak or stay quiet? What is the role of the leader in the room? When working with foreign business people, failing to take cultural differences into account can lead to frustration, misunderstanding or worse. Based on research and her experiences teaching cross-cultural behaviors to executive students, the author examines a handful of key areas. Among others, they include communicating (Anglo-Saxons are explicit; Asians communicate implicitly, requiring listeners to read between the lines), developing a sense of trust (Brazilians do it over long lunches), and decision-making (Germans rely on consensus, Americans on one decider). In each area, the author provides a “culture map scale” that positions behaviors in more than 20 countries along a continuum, allowing readers to anticipate the preferences of individuals from a particular country: Do they like direct or indirect negative feedback? Are they rigid or flexible regarding deadlines? Do they favor verbal or written commitments? And so on. Meyer discusses managers who have faced perplexing situations, such as knowledgeable team members who fail to speak up in meetings or Indians who offer a puzzling half-shake, half-nod of the head. Cultural differences—not personality quirks—are the motivating factors behind many behavioral styles. Depending on our cultures, we understand the world in a particular way, find certain arguments persuasive or lacking merit, and consider some ways of making decisions or measuring time natural and others quite strange.
These are not hard and fast rules, but Meyer delivers important reading for those engaged in international business.Pub Date: May 27, 2014
ISBN: 978-1-61039-250-1
Page Count: 288
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Review Posted Online: April 15, 2014
Kirkus Reviews Issue: May 1, 2014
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