THE SKEPTICS' GUIDE TO THE FUTURE

A gimlet-eyed look at the promises of technology and futurists past.

If people were to live to be 1,000, and if one of them committed some heinous crime, would it be just for a life sentence to last multiple centuries? Thus one of the thought experiments in the latest by the Novellas, a follow-up to The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe. The authors argue that while we have made tremendous progress in technology in the past half-century, it’s been in arenas that we didn’t quite expect: not the cure for cancer or the solution to climate change but instead fun apps to distract us from the world. “I drive to work in a car that would most likely seem ordinary to a driver from the 1950s,” write the authors, “but they would likely be blown away by my GPS and entertainment system.” That we might expect different comes from the overselling of a gleaming future by science fiction—e.g., the promise in 2001 that we would have traveled to Jupiter two decades ago or the projection that we’d have so much leisure time that we’d all become masters of our various corners of the universe. Instead, as the authors note, modern life proves “the deep philosophical principle that shit happens,” with most of us incapable of seeing it coming. The authors venture a few predictions of their own, including the expansion of robotics and the mechanization of biology, creating replacement parts within our bodies that are far more effective than the current titanium knees and hips. “But why limit ourselves to the original body plan?” he rejoins. “We can even add extra limbs.” One thing may be certain: If we live forever or very nearly so as “genetically modified cyborgs,” there won’t be much need for children—so maybe don’t buy stock in diaper manufacturers.

An intriguing if bet-hedging work of futurology that calls into question the whole business of futurology itself.